Rate Prediction Over Next 12 Months
Headlines pulled live from Mortgage News Daily, CNBC Economy, HousingWire, and MarketWatch. Mortgage rates follow the bond market — when Treasury yields move, your quote moves with them.
Will mortgage rates go up or down in the next 12 months?
The short answer: most forecasters expect the 30-year fixed rate to hold roughly flat to slightly lower over the next 12 months — drifting in the mid-6% range rather than snapping back to the 3% era or spiking higher. Below is what the major housing-finance organizations project, quarter by quarter.
Source
Fannie Mae
- Q3 2026
- 6.4%
- Q4 2026
- 6.4%
- Q1 2027
- 6.4%
- Q2 2027
- 6.3%
- Q3 2027
- 6.3%
- Q4 2027
- 6.3%
- 2027 avg
- 6.3%
Source
Mortgage Bankers Association
- Q3 2026
- 6.5%
- Q4 2026
- 6.5%
- Q1 2027
- 6.5%
- Q2 2027
- 6.5%
- Q3 2027
- 6.5%
- Q4 2027
- 6.5%
- 2027 avg
- 6.5%
What could push rates down
Further Fed rate cuts, cooling inflation, or softer employment data would pull Treasury yields lower — and mortgage quotes follow.
What could push rates up
Sticky inflation, a stronger-than-expected labor market, or renewed Treasury issuance could lift yields and push mortgage rates back toward the upper-6% range.
What it means for you
Waiting for a return to 3% may cost you years of equity. If a purchase or refi makes sense at today's rate, a free float-down or refi later can capture any future drop.
Forecast figures are quarterly-average 30-year fixed rates from Fannie Mae's June 2026 Housing Forecast and the MBA May 2026 Mortgage Finance Forecast. Forecasts are estimates by those organizations and are subject to change without notice; they are not a rate quote, a commitment to lend, or financial advice. Sources: Fannie Mae, MBA.
Today's Headlines
See today's rates & Treasury yields →- CNBC EconomySep 12, 2026, 8:49 AMInflation is outpacing wage growth again, squeezing Americans’ paychecks
In August, consumer prices rose 3.4% over the past year while wages increased just 3.1%.
- Mortgage News DailySep 11, 2026, 5:29 PMAM Rally Completely Erased By The Close
AM Rally Completely Erased By The Close This morning's paradoxical rally lasted 30 whole minutes. Bonds turned around at exactly 9am and proceeded to completely erase the AM gains. There were no compelling macro motivations for the reversal apart from a modest rise in oil prices. While oil price lows and highs perfectl
- Mortgage News DailySep 11, 2026, 3:24 PMMortgage Rates Held Fairly Steady Until Late in The Day
Looked at in a vacuum, and up until the last few hours of the day, Friday was no better or worse than the average day over the past several months. Compared to yesterday morning's levels, the average lender was 0.01% higher--a small enough move to be effectively considered "unchanged." This expanded to 0.05% in t
- MarketWatchSep 11, 2026, 3:14 PMU.S. stocks up sharply in final hour as investors look past hot inflation report
- Mortgage News DailySep 11, 2026, 2:35 PMExisting Home Sales Dip Below 4 Million as Inventory Builds
Existing-home sales slipped in August, falling below the 4 million annualized pace for the first time since June 2025, while a sharp increase in inventory gave buyers more options and pushed the supply of homes to its highest level in more than a decade. The National Association of REALTORS® reported a 2.0% decline in
- Mortgage News DailySep 11, 2026, 2:20 PMRefi Demand Declining Even Before Most Recent Rate Spike
Mortgage application activity pulled back last week, with a sharp decline in refinancing more than offsetting relatively stable purchase demand as mortgage rates moved higher. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 2.7% decrease in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending S
- MarketWatchSep 11, 2026, 2:13 PMThe Fed could raise interest rates three times. How that could test markets.
- CNBC EconomySep 11, 2026, 12:53 PMConsumer outlook plunges in September as inflation outlook worsens
The survey's headline index hit a level of 47.8, down 7.5% from the August reading and off 13.2% from a year ago.
- HousingWireSep 11, 2026, 12:20 PMMISMO board adds VantageScore, Guild and FICO leaders amid credit modernization push
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- Mortgage News DailySep 11, 2026, 11:05 AMAI Warehouse, Compliance Education Tools; Rocket's Limits; Who is Prepaying; Inflation = Higher Rates
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- HousingWireSep 11, 2026, 10:14 AMAugust CPI shows sticky core inflation ahead of Fed meeting
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- CNBC EconomySep 11, 2026, 9:46 AMInflation persisted in August, potentially locking in a Fed interest rate hike
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- Mortgage News DailySep 11, 2026, 9:43 AMParadoxical Rally in Bonds Thanks to Higher Fed Hike Odds
We've been saying for a while that the longer end of the bond market really wants to see the Fed get serious about fighting inflation. This is why yields spiked on July 29th when the Fed held rates steady and Warsh said he'd let the bond market do the heavy lifting. Now today, we have back-to-back inflation reports tha
- MarketWatchSep 11, 2026, 8:34 AMAugust CPI report shows core inflation was hotter than expected — live updates
- Mortgage News DailySep 10, 2026, 4:38 PMUgly Snowball Selling Thanks to Oil and Inflation Data
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- CNBC EconomySep 10, 2026, 3:18 PMFriday's CPI inflation report is even more important than usual. Here's what to expect
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- Mortgage News DailySep 10, 2026, 2:44 PM30yr Fixed Rates Jump to 7.07%
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- CNBC EconomySep 10, 2026, 12:55 PMThe likelihood of a Fed interest rate hike next week just got a lot higher
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- Mortgage News DailySep 10, 2026, 11:43 AMFinancing, Settlement, Processing Tools; Credit Score Tumult; Treasury Buybacks
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- CNBC EconomySep 10, 2026, 9:23 AMWholesale prices rose 0.4% in August, as expected
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- Mortgage News DailySep 10, 2026, 9:18 AMSharply Weaker Again. Half Oil. Half PPI
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- CNBC EconomySep 9, 2026, 12:17 PMU.S. reveals import ban on slew of Canadian goods as trade war escalates
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- CNBC EconomySep 8, 2026, 1:11 PMCanada's retaliatory tariffs worth CA$27.6 billion take effect as trade rift with U.S. deepens
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- CNBC EconomySep 8, 2026, 10:15 AMJapan's foreign reserves drop by a record $80 billion in August following yen intervention
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- CNBC EconomySep 8, 2026, 12:45 AMChina's imports in August miss estimates as calls for rebalancing trade grow
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- CNBC EconomySep 5, 2026, 7:55 PMFrom ‘mystery vacations’ to hostels, budget travelers get thrifty as prices rise
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- CNBC EconomySep 5, 2026, 3:12 PMTrump turns up the heat on Warsh as Fed rate hike looms
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- CNBC EconomySep 4, 2026, 2:27 PMWomen accounted for almost all of job gains in August. Here's why
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- CNBC EconomySep 4, 2026, 1:16 PMU.S. payrolls rose 162,000 in August, much more than expected; unemployment rate at 4.1%
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- CNBC EconomySep 3, 2026, 3:38 PMThe big August jobs report is due out Friday. Here's what to expect for what has been a jobless summer
August nonfarm payrolls are expected to rise by 53,000 as a subdued labor market keeps Fed attention focused on inflation.
- CNBC EconomySep 3, 2026, 10:06 AMFed Governor Waller indicates he will support holding rates steady at September meeting
In remarks that seem to contrast with statements last week from Chairman Kevin Warsh, Waller expressed confidence in the current inflation trends.
- CNBC EconomySep 3, 2026, 8:25 AM'Danger zone of extreme weather': UN warns of supersized El Niño set to hit global economy and markets
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- CNBC EconomySep 2, 2026, 10:30 AMPrivate payrolls rose by 38,000 in August, less than expected, ADP reports
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- CNBC EconomySep 1, 2026, 6:50 AMEuro zone inflation is back above 3%. Higher interest rates are likely to follow
The European Central Bank is seen hiking rates in September as the Iran war raises energy costs in the region.
- CNBC EconomyAug 31, 2026, 9:35 AMBank of England chief warns new AI models threaten global financial stability
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- CNBC EconomyAug 31, 2026, 7:23 AMIndia’s economy expands 7.8% in fiscal first quarter, beating estimates
The economy was driven by a strong performance in the financial, real estate, information technology and professional services sectors.
- CNBC EconomyAug 30, 2026, 11:15 PMChina's factory activity shrinks for second straight month, contracting less than expected
China's manufacturing activity shrank for a second straight month, keeping pressure on Beijing to support the economy as growth loses momentum.
- CNBC EconomyAug 30, 2026, 7:31 PMSingapore tackles finances and culture to avert a demographic crisis
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- CNBC EconomyAug 29, 2026, 4:22 PMK, C or E? Why economists can’t agree on the shape of today’s economy
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- CNBC EconomyAug 28, 2026, 12:11 PMFed Chairman Warsh expresses concern about inflation, advocates for 'quieter' central bank
He used the speech to outline his philosophy on policymaking while carefully sidestepping any signals
- CNBC EconomyAug 27, 2026, 1:31 PMFed's Hammack says 'now is the time to act' on raising interest rates
She still thinks the Fed needs to take action against inflation that is straining household budgets.
- CNBC EconomyAug 26, 2026, 9:35 AMFed’s preferred inflation gauge shows core prices rose 3.3% annually in July
The personal consumption expenditures price index was expected to rise 0.1% monthly and 3.6% on a 12-month basis, according to economists surveyed by Dow Jones.
Headlines link to their original publishers. News is informational only and is not a rate quote or a commitment to lend.